Now the WTO expects a reduction in world trade in goods by 0.2%, although back in October 2024 it predicted a growth of 3%, the Organization's report says.
According to WTO analysts, this situation may worsen even more, and then world trade in goods will fall by 1.5%.
In the sphere of trade in services, growth is expected by 4%, which is approximately 1 percentage point worse than predicted in October 2024.
World trade in goods may return to growth of 2.5% in 2026, WTO experts believe.
The forecast for global GDP growth in 2025 is 2.2%, and in 2026 - 2.4%.
“I am deeply concerned about the uncertainty in trade policy, including the confrontation between the United States and China,” said WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
According to WTO analysts, the forecast for world trade is characterized by significant risks, especially the risks of the entry into force of the US “mirror tariffs”, the effect of which was suspended for 90 days.
The introduction of tariffs in itself will have a negative impact on the dynamics of global trade in goods by 0.6 percentage points, and the accompanying uncertainty will increase the rate of decline by another 0.8 percentage points.
North American exports are expected to fall by 12.6% in 2025, while imports are expected to decline by 9.6%. Asia is expected to see moderate growth in both, by 1.6%. In Europe, WTO experts estimate exports will increase by 1% and imports by 1.9%.
“The deterioration in US-China trade relations could lead to trade diversions, raising concerns about China’s increased competition for third countries,” the WTO said in a statement.
The organization’s analysts predict that China will increase exports to all regions of the world, except North America, by 4-9% in 2025.
Source: WTO.
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