Political scientist Ruslan Bortnik commented on Russia’s sudden decision to close some border checkpoints with Finland, Estonia, and Latvia, and assessed whether this indicates preparations for war, reports Politeka.
He spoke about this in his blog.
“Indeed, five checkpoints on the border with Finland and one each on the borders with Latvia and Estonia have been closed or suspended. Experts say that these checkpoints were in fact already not operating due to blockades and closures on the part of these countries. So Russia allegedly responded in a mirror-like manner. Although some checkpoints were still handling goods flows and cargo as recently as last year,” Ruslan Bortnik notes.
According to the expert, this is unlikely to be simply an attempt to reduce certain costs related to the operation of customs services and officials. He emphasizes that it is a certain signal to Western neighbors that Moscow is continuing to raise the stakes, that it is ready not only to respond symmetrically, but also to cut off relations with these neighbors.
“The very fact of interrupting and closing borders and checkpoints always looks very dangerous. In classical political science and history, it is a harbinger of war. First diplomatic communication and trade are cut off, and then troops follow,” warns Ruslan Bortnik.
Nevertheless, he argues, it is unlikely that Russia will attack Finland, Latvia, or Estonia in the near future. But overall, it is a signal that Moscow will also act harshly, that it is ready for escalation, that it potentially views these neighbors as enemies or unfriendly countries, and therefore is prepared to restrict communication with them and possibly even use force in the future — but not at this time.
