Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik commented on Pistorius' statement that the war has entered a decisive phase and assessed whether there will indeed be major developments by November 2026, as is reportedly being discussed behind the scenes, according to Politeka.
He shared his views on his blog.
"I think people are already quite tired of hearing the phrase 'decisive phase.' This year it may sound a little fresher, but in previous years, especially during the winter, we repeatedly heard claims that the war had entered a decisive stage. The truth is that every moment of a war is, in a sense, a decisive phase. As soon as the balance between the warring countries shifts—whether on the battlefield, in domestic stability, or in terms of external support—it can quickly develop into a crisis that truly becomes a decisive phase," Bortnik explained.
According to him, neither Ukraine nor Russia appears ready at this point to abandon its military objectives, and neither side has exhausted its resources. Bortnik suggested that Pistorius' remarks may reflect a broader belief in the West that this could be the last summer of high-intensity fighting, with intensive and difficult negotiations to end the war expected to begin in the autumn, either in the run-up to the U.S. elections or immediately afterward.
He also noted that Russia's State Duma elections are scheduled for the autumn, while the upcoming heating season could prove particularly difficult because of Ukrainian strikes. As a result, Bortnik said, some in the West believe Russia might agree to a ceasefire along the current front lines, or that Donald Trump could ultimately pressure both sides into halting large-scale hostilities.
"But I think this is wishful thinking—an attempt to present hopes as reality. Unfortunately, the likelihood that the war will end this autumn remains low because neither side has achieved its objectives, and at the same time neither side has fully exhausted its resources," Bortnik concluded.
