The Ukrainian currency market is currently experiencing relative stability, with the US dollar trading between 41.2 and 41.6 hryvnias, experts attribute this stability to moderate demand for foreign currency and the National Bank of Ukraine's (NBU) reduced interventions.
Economists predict a gradual depreciation of the hryvnia by the end of 2025. Forecasts suggest the dollar could reach approximately 45 to 47.5 hryvnias, influenced by factors such as military operations, declining exports, and reduced business activity.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects an average annual exchange rate of 42.5 UAH/USD for 2025, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to previous estimates.
Key Influencing Factors:
Military Operations: Ongoing conflicts continue to exert pressure on the national currency.
Export Decline: Reduced exports limit foreign currency inflows, affecting the exchange rate.
Business Closures: A significant number of small businesses have ceased operations, decreasing tax revenues and economic activity.
External Financial Support: The extent of international aid and financial assistance plays a crucial role in stabilizing the economy and the currency.
While the hryvnia remains relatively stable in the short term, several factors could lead to its depreciation by the end of 2025. Continuous monitoring of economic indicators and geopolitical developments is essential for accurate forecasting.
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