Political expert and military officer Oleksandr Musienko said that Israel is planning to change the regime in Iran due to the escalation of the conflict, but there are risks of oil price increases, which Russia will take advantage of, Politeka reports.
He said this in his blog.
"The Iranian leadership has informed mediators from Qatar and Oman that it will not hold any negotiations during the Israeli attack. This concerns both negotiations on a ceasefire with Israel and the resumption of negotiations with the United States on a new nuclear deal. According to a source at Agence France-Presse, Tehran stressed that it is ready to move on to serious negotiations only after Iran completes its response to Israeli preemptive strikes," Oleksandr Musienko says.
Meanwhile, he notes, the price of oil has reached almost $80 per barrel, and according to estimates from sources on the Qatari Al Jazeera TV channel, it will reach $100 if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, through which large volumes of oil pass. Analysts from American banks JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, the expert adds, are talking about $120 per barrel, and some media outlets, citing the head of the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, are giving apocalyptic forecasts of $300 per barrel.
“I wouldn’t dramatize it like that, I wouldn’t exaggerate, but both $100 and $120 are a lot. This is clearly more than the $60-70 that Russia has been putting into its budget to ensure financial stability. That is, such a scenario would suit them perfectly. "$100-120 is what Russia has always dreamed of, which allowed Putin to accumulate resources during the best times of oil prices, which were then used to prepare aggression against Ukraine," comments Oleksandr Musienko.
So, he states, the war in the Middle East will continue, and, as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu hinted in an interview with Fox News, they would not mind if the regime in Iran changed. According to the expert, everyone would not mind, but we will see, because there is panic in Iran now, residents are leaving Tehran en masse, there are even some protests against the current regime, but no major consolidation is visible.
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