Military expert Oleg Starikov spoke about the chances that the current negotiation process in Washington — and in the future, in Budapest — will lead to de-escalation in the Russian-Ukrainian war, Politeka reports.
He discussed this on his channel.
"Putin insists on a zero-sum outcome — one winner, the other a loser. Trump approached it differently — a non-zero-sum equation, meaning no clear winners or losers; it all depends on the informational component, on how it's presented to the outside world. Putin initially rejected this, but after Trump began implementing his geopolitical 'Tomahawk' plan to solve the non-zero-sum equation, the Kremlin realized that 'the perfect is the enemy of the good'," Starikov explains.
In the near future, he notes, we are likely to see some sort of strategic shift. According to the expert, this will either be de-escalation and the signing of relevant documents — effectively ending the war — or escalation that could reach the level of NATO's eastern flank, with a high probability of tactical nuclear weapons being used.
"In other words, we have reached a singularity point — a bifurcation point. That’s why today, by Washington time — which will be evening our time — and throughout next week in Budapest, decisions related to the signing of certain documents will be made," Oleg Starikov claims.
According to him, the key intelligence indicator is that both Trump and Putin have instructed their senior officials to prepare negotiations. These will be Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov — officials authorized to discuss interstate relations, work on documents, and bring them to the leadership level. Therefore, he concludes, barring a "black swan" event, we will most likely be discussing the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war next week.
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