Political scientist Ruslan Bortnyk explained that if Ukraine were to win and flourish, all former Soviet republics would follow the Western path, leading Russia to lose its influence and face an internal crisis, reports Politeka.
He discussed this in his blog.
According to the expert, the rising “Russian Empire 2.0” was bound to clash with Ukraine. He emphasizes that by that time, a distinct post-Soviet or neo-Ukrainian society had already formed in Ukraine. Ukraine never saw itself as a mere periphery — it had behind it the historical civilization of Rus, major achievements within many empires — and therefore, a confrontation with Russia was inevitable.
“Moreover,” Bortnyk notes, “both approaches — Ukrainian and Russian — claim influence over the post-Soviet space. In essence, Ukraine offers a different model for the development of this space — a pro-Western one. It is less competitive now, but in the past it was more politically and economically competitive: open, deindustrialized, and de-oligarchized,” he explains.
In other words, the expert stresses, Ukraine’s model competes directly with that proposed by Russia and its elites. He says the very existence and image of Ukraine — especially before 2022 — fundamentally contradict the logic of Alexander Dugin and other Russian right-wing conservative thinkers. “Only one could remain in this space.”
“If Ukraine had won and prospered, it would have led, over time, to a serious internal crisis in Russia,” Bortnyk concludes. “That would mean not only Moldova — as we see now — but also Belarus, and later the Caucasus, Central Asia, and eventually even the Russian Federation itself would follow Ukraine’s path. Therefore, there is an existential conflict here.”
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