Doctor of Economics Andriy Dlihach outlined the current scenarios for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war and explained why negotiations will not bring peace, Politeka reports.
He discussed this on the program “Free Media Space.”
According to the guest, there is a general consensus that the Russian-Ukrainian war will last for a long time. It will not end with any kind of win-win negotiations, he adds, because there is no common ground where the sides could reach an agreement — their interests are diametrically opposed: Russia seeks to destroy Ukraine, regain control over Central Europe, and restore its imperial format, while Ukraine seeks subjectivity, independence, restoration of territorial integrity, and Euro-Atlantic integration.
“The scenario we are currently following is that all the main developments are taking place outside of Ukraine’s territory. The key events unfold between two civilizations — with the question of whether the West will recognize the existence of the Eastern civilization, whether a third player will emerge in this game, and whether we will transition to a multipolar world... And until the global players hold something like a new Yalta and agree on a new world format, the hot war in Ukraine, with varying degrees of intensity, will continue,” said Andriy Dlihach.
According to the expert, there are several possible scenarios for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. The first is that we will conclude a rotten deal for six months or a year — long enough for Russia to prepare for a new stage of aggression while elections take place in Ukraine. The second scenario, he says, is that Ukraine will receive sufficient technical and economic assistance, the West will tighten sanctions, and will recognize that the deconstruction of Russia is the only path to victory for the Western world. The third scenario is the defeat of Ukraine and Europe.
“The most likely scenario is the intermediate one — a rotten deal that will lead to a new wave of war in a year or six months. That’s the time horizon we see. Accordingly, the war is not for two or three years — it’s a war on a ten-year horizon,” Dlihach emphasized.
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