Political expert and serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko said that a U.S. delegation may soon fly to Moscow for negotiations, but Russia’s hawks are already rejecting the peace plan, Politeka reports.
He spoke about this in his blog.
According to preliminary information, the expert notes, an American delegation may visit Moscow as early as the end of this week to find out whether Russia is ready to sign the updated peace plan. This is indeed uncertain, he states, since Russian ideologue Dugin has already dismissed the idea of any compromise, saying that regardless of any signed documents, the ultimate goal remains unchanged: “Ukraine will be ours.”
“This shows that Russia is already openly saying in advance that it has no intention of fulfilling what it signs and will violate it. And as soon as Russia violates something, we will not be bound by any documents or norms, because then any agreements lose their meaning and we can defend ourselves as we see fit. And we must be prepared for this. Dugin and many in the Kremlin view the U.S. plan not as an agreement but as a tactical pause before the complete absorption of Ukraine,” Oleksandr Musiienko explains.
As the expert notes, he analyzed the Russian segment of social networks, and indeed there are hawks and fringe groups systematically calling to fight to the last and to capture Kyiv. Thus, the expert states, it will be difficult for Putin to justify a peace agreement, even if he wants to sign it—though there are reasons he might.
“Gas prices have dropped, oil prices have dropped. Global prices are falling, especially for Russian supplies. The decline in quotations indicates that traders are beginning to factor into the price a potential agreement that would remove the risks of supply disruptions and possibly ease sanctions pressure on Russian exports. The situation is unstable, because in parallel with the negotiations, new U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil have come into force. This prevents an even sharper drop in prices, as the market fears shortages if the negotiations fail. So things are not easy for Russia either. There is the so-called party of war. I don’t know how Putin will deal with it—he has cultivated it for years—and whether he will deal with it at all,” Oleksandr Musiienko concludes.
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