Political strategist Mikhail Sheitelman said that many economists are currently alarming everyone by claiming that, due to a war against Iran, oil could reach $200 per barrel, and explained why, from a political perspective, this is not the case, Politeka reports.
He spoke about this on his blog.
As Axios writes, the expert notes, Trump is weighing the possibility of seizing Iran’s Khark Island, suggesting that there could be a ground operation involving several thousand Marines. In that case, he explains, Iran would not be able to load oil, because its oil export terminal is located on that island, but the Strait of Hormuz would not be unblocked as a result.
“Let’s assume that Trump really does something extraordinary, attacks this island, sends in some soldiers, and some kind of war begins there, which would obviously be long-term. Would oil rise to $200 because of this? I believe not. Let me explain why. Economists calculate everything economically. That is, they say: ‘Look, we used to have three barrels of oil, right? And now, because of the Strait of Hormuz, we have only two barrels left. That means the price goes up from 100 to 150.’ But that’s not how it works,” explains Mikhail Sheitelman.
As the expert emphasizes, the United States represents technology, artificial intelligence, major IT companies — in other words, it is the driver of the global economy. Therefore, he explains, if the world sees that the United States is bogged down in war, it will say “stop,” it will say that the economy is slowing down; production will decline everywhere, including China, Europe, and America, and a major economic crisis will set in, because hardly anyone will be producing much of anything.
“And amid an economic crisis, oil prices fall, not rise. So there will be opposing trends: one is that there is less oil, the other is that demand for it is lower. What $200 are we talking about? Of course not. But this is my political forecast. Notice, I’m not talking about economics, but about politics. I believe that politics will lead to this kind of outcome,” Mikhail Sheitelman concluded.
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