Oleg Pendzin, an expert at the Economic Discussion Club, told us what the dollar exchange rate will be in Ukraine and whether it is worth buying currency.
Only those who bought currency no later than the beginning of February will receive a profit from buying euros.
In the first ten days of May, the situation on the currency market will remain at the current level, but in the future it will change unfavorably for the hryvnia.
The analyst said that the National Bank is currently holding back high inflation with a relatively low and stable dollar exchange rate.
"For now, fluctuations in the cash exchange rate will be at the level of statistical error. In May, inflation will decrease because cheap seasonal vegetables from open ground, not greenhouses, will come to the market en masse. That's when the regulator can raise the official dollar exchange rate," he said.
According to Pendzin's forecast, the cash dollar to hryvnia exchange rate may return to the level of 42 UAH/USD.
"So to speak, the dollar will become more expensive due to cheaper vegetables," he believes.
Pendzin believes that buying currency is not the best option for investment.
The expert calculated that since the beginning of the year, the cash dollar exchange rate has fallen by more than a hryvnia, that is, this is an investment in the "minus". The euro has really become more expensive, but only those who bought the euro no later than the beginning of February, when the rate was at its minimum: 43.5 UAH per unit, and not more than 47.5 UAH, as in May, will benefit from 8-9% per annum.
Pendzin advises investing in hryvnia government bonds with a short term - up to one year. According to him, this is the most profitable option.
"If the annual investment term does not suit you, you can open a hryvnia deposit account for 90-100 days. Interest on three-month deposits reaches 17% per annum, but taxes will reduce net income to 13%. This is comparable to the inflation rate. Buying currency will not bring such income, because the dollar exchange rate is not only not growing, but on the contrary," the expert explained.
Source: TSN.
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