Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik explained that the US will eventually reach an agreement with Russia on strategic stability and the war will end, but this will not happen until the partners agree on security guarantees for Ukraine, Politeka reports.
He spoke about this in his blog.
"I expect that the US and Europe will eventually agree on a model of security guarantees for Ukraine. The US will push Europe into it, and the likelihood is high. Then this model of security guarantees will be put on the table between the US and Russia. The main problem today is that the US, Ukraine, and Europe cannot agree on a common model of security guarantees for Ukraine. And this is, in particular, the reason why Trump refuses to take tough action against Moscow. The West is not ready to talk with Moscow now. It has nothing to put on the table," Ruslan Bortnik explains.
If nothing can be agreed upon, he warns, then difficult times await us, because American weapons will become more expensive and less accessible for European purchases. If everything goes well, the expert notes, the agreed guarantees will be put on the table, and the US and Russia will begin negotiating strategic stability: nuclear weapons, short- and medium-range missiles, military bases, and so on.
In that case, he reasons, Russia might remove its nuclear presence from Belarus or Kaliningrad, while NATO might retreat somewhat in Eastern Europe. Various agreements are possible here, generously lubricated with money: sanctions, joint projects, the fate of frozen Russian assets—which, by the way, Europe has no intention of returning to Moscow.
"With goodwill, this issue could be resolved in 1–3 months. Without goodwill, we won’t even pass the stage of security guarantees. We will remain stuck in it, and the war will continue until the situation at the front once again changes the balance," Ruslan Bortnik reflects.
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