Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik explained that Trump could indeed provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, at least for symbolic strikes, but the question remains—will this lead to peace or escalation, Politeka reports.
He shared this in his blog:
“Supplying Ukraine with a certain number of these missiles and carrying out some symbolic strikes is quite possible in order to raise the stakes. Because Russia will, of course, respond. This means a new round of escalation. We might see threats, nuclear blackmail, some missiles somewhere in Venezuela or Cuba. In other words, the Cuban Missile Crisis scenario will continue to unfold in the event of such strikes. A turning point in the war is unlikely, but the Cuban Crisis scenario will keep developing,” Bortnik argues.
Moreover, the expert emphasizes, if the Tomahawks hit some symbolic targets, questions will arise about the reputation of Russian air defenses. And since, according to the Kremlin’s version, only Americans would be launching these missiles, many in Russia will ask why Moscow isn't responding—after all, this would be seen as an escalation.
“I believe what’s holding Trump back [from supplying Tomahawks to Ukraine] is the question: ‘And what next?’ Look, the missiles are delivered, Russia responds somehow. What happens next? Does the strategic balance change? Are we getting closer to achieving our goals or not? That’s the question that concerns him right now,” Ruslan Bortnik notes.
In addition, the expert reminds, Trump doesn't want to look like Biden. He promised not to allow World War III, to end all wars in general, so it’s not in his interest to make the American public feel threatened by a nuclear risk. Because in that case, he notes, capital won't be fleeing from Europe to America, but from America to somewhere like Australia, to quieter places—and that will impact the domestic economic situation and voters’ perceptions.
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