Military expert Oleg Starikov stated that it’s time for Europe to shift toward realpolitik, as a “march of fools” will lead to negative consequences—from the loss of autonomy to war, Politeka reports.
He discussed this on his channel.
According to the expert, American historian Barbara Tuchman outlined her concept of political folly in her book The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam, and interestingly, Europe's policy from 2022 to 2024 regarding the Russia-Ukraine war fits well into this framework.
“This doesn’t mean that supporting Ukraine is wrong in principle, but the form, scale, and strategic blindness could lead to consequences that Europe will be unable to control. I suggest modeling an alternative scenario—shifting from a march of fools to a march of realists, based on a policy of adaptation not driven by inertia and ideology, but by strategic flexibility and systemic resilience,” emphasizes Oleg Starikov.
If Europe adopts adaptive principles, he explains, it will stop automatically following the foreign policy directives of the U.S., regain strategic autonomy, and begin creating a distinctly European security architecture—one that includes Ukraine, but does not exclude Russia as a geopolitical factor. Military support for Ukraine, the expert notes, should continue, but at the same time negotiations should be launched involving neutral countries such as India, Turkey, Brazil, and China. And, of course, he continues, investments in Ukraine should be made with the view of it becoming a future economic partner, not just a frontline outpost. Otherwise, he warns, Europe will lose its autonomy, the population—losing trust in the authorities—will vote for right-wing populists, and a split within the EU could occur, all while the threat of war draws closer.
“Conclusion: Europe is an anti-example of adaptation, unless a strategic shift occurs. Europe could become an example of civilizational decline through folly—like Rome in Late Antiquity or France before the Revolution—with beautiful institutions, but no capacity for adaptation,” concludes Oleg Starikov.
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