Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik explained why the peace track is currently on pause, what Putin wants, what Trump is not ready to concede to him, and whether the negotiation process can continue, Politeka reports.
He spoke about this in his blog.
According to the expert, the issue is not really about Donbas, but about the division of spheres of influence. Trump, he notes, is demonstrating that he is not ready to give everything to Putin — he seeks to keep Ukraine within his political and economic sphere of influence. Hence, by the way, the agreement on mineral resources. Putin, the expert continues, formally declares his desire to obtain only those regions that are listed in the Russian Constitution, but in reality he aims to gain control over all of Ukraine — not necessarily formal control, but military-political and economic influence.
“And that’s where they can’t reach an agreement. That’s why Trump, as a preventive measure, proposes introducing only a ceasefire — to freeze the conflict as it is. A frozen conflict and the front line would immediately turn into a wall between Russia and the rest of Ukraine. But Putin wants an agreement on the division of spheres of influence, one that would determine the fate not only of Dobropillia, but also of Dnipro and Kyiv, to some extent,” explains Ruslan Bortnik.
That is why, he states, Trump is escalating, imposing sanctions and postponing the meeting in Budapest. And, of course, the expert adds, this is also a reaction to the fact that Russia is not abandoning its 2022–2023 positions — an attempt to raise the stakes by intimidating with strategic nuclear force exercises, which clearly contradicts the logic of developments if the parties have supposedly agreed to end the war.
“At the same time, the road to negotiations is not closed. Moreover, perhaps we are actually getting closer to real talks. Right now, the positions of the parties are crystallizing; they are laying all their cards on the table. The ridges of genuine red lines and core interests — the ones they cannot back away from — are becoming visible,” concludes Ruslan Bortnik.
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