Political expert and military serviceman Oleksandr Musiyenko commented on the news that the Russian "Oreshnik" system will be deployed in Belarus by December, explaining the reasons and risks, as reported by Politeka. He shared his thoughts in his blog.
"The story of placing Russian nuclear weapon carriers in Belarus is nothing new. Putin previously announced the need to deploy both missiles and aircraft, retrofitted to launch missiles with nuclear warheads, in Belarus. So, what are Putin's goals? The first goal is to intimidate the West and create a challenge on the scale of the Cuban Missile Crisis, setting the stage and preconditions for negotiations with the U.S. and demanding pressure on Ukraine," Oleksandr Musiyenko explains.
Additionally, he notes that Russia aims to provoke a crisis of unity in Europe, dividing it on how to respond. The expert also recalls that former Polish President Duda raised the issue of potentially deploying American nuclear weapons on Polish territory as part of the nuclear sharing mechanism. Recently, Prime Minister Tusk also spoke about the threats to Europe from Russian medium-range missiles in Belarus, emphasizing the need for a response.
According to Musiyenko, Poland's position is correct, as if Russia deploys its weapons and disrupts the balance of power, the West might shift its deterrence line eastward to Poland. However, this would lead to debates within NATO, where members may have differing opinions. Therefore, Putin is testing the response.
"Let's wait and see. But Russia is currently using nuclear weapon intimidation to the fullest. The paradigm they want to impose is that of the 20th century: the Cuban Missile Crisis, arms crises, nuclear threats, and so on. For example, Lavrov said that everyone went silent after the testing of the 'Burevestnik' cruise missile with a nuclear warhead. They are using this quite actively," concludes Oleksandr Musiyenko.
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