Political strategist Mykhailo Sheitelman assessed the possibility of a regime change in China, the coming to power of pragmatists, and the consequences for Ukraine — in particular, the end of the war with Russia, Politeka reports.
He spoke about this on his blog.
“Last week there were certain disturbances in China. Some thought this was an attempt to overthrow Xi, but it was more likely an attempt at counterrevolution — suppressing future uprisings. China has taken an authoritarian path, but it has done so only recently. That is, unlike Russia, for example, the Chinese still have a chance to change this path. I mean the Chinese elites, not necessarily the people directly. Not in the sense of abolishing communism — no one is going to abolish the Communist Party — but of returning to a system in which Chinese leaders are replaced every ten years. That would mean China’s return to pragmatism,” Mykhailo Sheitelman explains.
According to the expert, after Mao Zedong’s death China was ruled by pragmatists who wanted to get rich, so they developed the country, whereas Xi now rules like a fanatic and wants to make China great again. As he emphasizes, if a leader says he wants to make a country great again, you can turn out the lights and drain the oil — because that is the most dangerous thing. A pragmatic Putin simply stole money, while a fanatical one wages war against Ukraine. Therefore, the expert concludes, Ukraine would be much better off with a different regime in China, since pragmatism means cutting off trade with Russia.
“The EU is acting. Macron traveled to China in November, Starmer went to China this week. Over the past year all European leaders have visited China, some of them several times. They are acting, but diplomacy with the Chinese is always very quiet. We hear very little because there is no free press in China. They can’t come to a press conference with Xi and ask a question like, ‘Starmer visited you — what did you agree on?’ This is essentially the Soviet Union. That’s why, of course, we don’t get information from there,” Mykhailo Sheitelman says.
Nevertheless, he notes, we do know that European leaders constantly travel to China, and after his visit Macron even stated that “now we have cards.” But the main cards, the expert argues, are in Trump’s hands. In April he will meet with Xi, so we’ll see whether he can somehow bargain over our war.
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