Political expert and serviceman Oleksandr Musiienko stated that the goal of the U.S. operation against Iran is regime change and assessed whether this can be achieved without a ground operation and public support.
He shared this in his blog.
“The situation is progressing, as more and more of Iran’s military-political leadership is being eliminated; this process is ongoing. American and Israeli aviation are continuously striking headquarters and command centers of Iranian forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. That is a separate story. In addition, strikes have already targeted information capabilities — including a television center. However, it appears that Iran’s ability to launch missiles has not yet been suppressed,” Musiienko said.
According to the expert, there are currently no mass protests in Iran, although this had been expected. Israeli politicians, he noted, had previously stated that they wanted to give protesters the opportunity to take power into their own hands and hold elections. The expert suggests that Reza Pahlavi may seek to return and participate in such elections, alongside other Iranian politicians. However, at present, the regime has not been overthrown; it continues to govern, and internet access in Iran remains shut down, significantly limiting protesters’ ability to organize.
“Moreover, there is a possibility that airstrikes alone cannot trigger regime change. This has been reported by Al Jazeera. For example, Michael Mulroy, a former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, said that without a ground operation or a fully armed organic uprising by Iranians, the state’s security apparatus may survive. ‘You cannot facilitate regime change solely through airstrikes,’ Mulroy said. ‘If anyone remains alive, the regime still exists,’” Musiienko explained.
The expert also recalled that all U.S. campaigns in the Middle East began with massive airstrikes. However, if we consider Operation Desert Storm and other operations against Iraq, they ultimately involved the deployment of ground forces to overthrow the regime.
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