Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik explained that Russia is currently unable to process much of its oil production and is therefore exporting crude oil. However, if a deal with Iran is reached, the United States may once again target Russian oil exports with sanctions, Politeka reports.
He discussed this in his blog.
According to the expert, Russian oil exports are currently at their peak because the country is unable to refine a significant portion of its oil. Many oil refineries have been destroyed or damaged. As a result, he notes, Russia is forced to export crude oil with lower added value, earning less than it would if these refineries were operational and the country could export refined petroleum products instead.
“Most likely, if the issue with Iran is resolved, the United States will no longer grant any exemptions from sanctions on Russian oil. I have discussed this with representatives of the U.S. government, and for them these exemptions have always been a tool of economic regulation,” Ruslan Bortnik claims.
In other words, the expert explains, the United States has never viewed these exemptions as part of a political game with Russia, nor as concessions or something to be exchanged for Russian cooperation. Rather, he argues, they have always been used solely as a means of lowering prices on global markets, since Russian oil continued to flow primarily to India and other countries, helping to alleviate supply shortages there.
“But everything depends on the fate of the deal with Iran and on how quickly the Middle East’s industry can recover. Based on that, the United States will continue to manually regulate whether to maintain or remove oil-related sanctions relief for Russia. Judging by what Trump is saying now... Of course, we are still awaiting the visits of Witkoff and Kushner to Moscow, but the United States intends to put pressure on Russia. Therefore, the likelihood that exemptions from oil sanctions on Russia will continue to be extended is currently very low,” Ruslan Bortnik concluded.
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