International affairs expert Ramdan Aouragh explained that peace in the Middle East would of course be beneficial for Ukraine, but for now nothing is settled there between the United States and Iran, especially since there is also the factor of Israel, reports Politeka.
He said this in the program “Dialogues” with Ruslan Bortnik.
According to the guest, if there is a final peace in the Middle East, partners will free up resources to help Ukraine. But if the situation there is further destabilized, it will only serve Russia’s interests. He also adds that Russia has supplied Iran with many drones, so a resumption of hostilities would benefit it: it would pull Western resources in that direction, push oil prices up again, fill the Russian budget, and make aid to Ukraine less likely.
“How will this affect Ukraine? The restoration of peace in the Persian Gulf is a chance for Ukraine to receive attention and assistance from its allies. If military actions resume, Ukraine will be pushed into secondary roles, and this will give Russia the opportunity to pursue its goals militarily with financial support due to rising prices,” Ramdan Aouragh explains.
However, he argues that for now it looks like hostilities in the Middle East have been postponed, given the situation in the United States with the World Cup, congressional elections, since signing a memorandum of intent does not yet mean the issue is fully resolved. The expert notes that it would be very desirable for peace to be achieved in the Middle East, but Israel is also a factor, and if it is not satisfied, it will actively undermine the process.
“So ending this war in such a smooth, polished way, as outlined in those points, is unlikely. This is a multi-layered, multidimensional problem that cannot be solved in just one dimension. It needs to be addressed comprehensively. And solving it comprehensively, given other conflicts that are nearby and other crises currently present… I believe this is very unlikely. We are on the brink of a big upheaval, a major war, unfortunately,” Ramdan Aouragh concludes.
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