Military expert Oleh Starikov explained that both sides are only now approaching full-fledged peace negotiations, and a ceasefire might be achieved soon, Politeka reports.
He discussed this on his channel.
As the expert explains, Trump has several scenarios, and he won’t be changing anything. The first proposed date for a peace settlement was April 20, which has already passed; the second is April 30, and the third is May 9. He also reminds that U.S. Secretary of State Rubio already stated that the U.S. will not wait indefinitely, and in case of failure, they will move on to other matters. In other words, it was a form of pressure and encouragement to move toward peace.
“Putin quickly responded to this political threat by announcing (ed. – the Easter truce). But still, people who understand geopolitics know this is a show. It doesn’t matter whether there was a violation or not. For geopolitics, this has no significance. It matters to Ukraine, to those on the front lines, to every battalion, brigade, company, soldier, and the family members of those soldiers. But in terms of geopolitics, the number of casualties means nothing,” Starikov emphasizes.
In general, he reflects, we are only now approaching a normal and full phase of the negotiation process. Much will be decided in London, and after that, a ceasefire may follow. According to the expert, it could happen in stages, in specific areas, but fierce fighting will definitely continue in the Kursk and Belgorod regions, while in the south and east of Ukraine, hostilities may come to a halt.
“But if, as a result of some actions, a catastrophe, a catharsis, something global, the negotiation process collapses, then the situation in the Russian-Ukrainian war will escalate. This could lead to World War III, which may be thermonuclear. Right now, we are somewhere around steps 36–38 on the Kahn escalation ladder, and there are 44 steps in total. After the 44th step comes the nuclear phase,” concludes Oleh Starikov.
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