«We buried our heads in the sand for too long»: expert explains why the Baltic states need to prepare for war

Political scientist Abbas Gallyamov assessed whether there are real threats from Russia to the Baltic states, given that NATO is conducting exercises there, and explained how Putin intends to trade the war there for Ukraine, reports Politeka.

He spoke about this in Valeriy Savchuk’s author program “Different People.”

As the guest of the program explains, Russia still has a certain amount of resources left; they are not unlimited and are decreasing. Therefore, Putin can either continue waging war against Ukraine without achieving anything, or try to use these resources more wisely by attacking, for example, Estonia. Moreover, he adds, the moment is favorable: Trump has fallen out with the Europeans over the Strait of Hormuz, meaning he will not help, and without the US no one will dare to start a major war. This would allow Russia to make the resumption of aid to Ukraine a condition.

“Europeans understand this and are preparing; it would be strange if they weren’t. Europeans buried their heads in the sand for a very long time. The war has been going on since 2022, not to mention 2014. Back then, one could still miss things; even Putin himself did not know or believe what would happen in 2022, and Russian elites didn’t either. Remember Naryshkin’s shock at the Security Council meeting? And Naryshkin is the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service. They may have failed to notice what was happening before 2022, but afterwards it became obvious that it was time to stop resting on their laurels,” Abbas Gallyamov comments.

When Trump began restricting arms supplies, he reminds, Europeans were horrified to realize that despite their economic potential, they had no weapons. One could say, the expert notes, that first Europeans were “woken up” by Putin, and then by Trump as well. Finally, they came to their senses a bit and started acting, which is why NATO exercises in the Baltic Sea are a natural response to what is happening.

“The reports to Putin about being able to take Tallinn in three days will be made by the same generals who promised Kyiv in three days. And therefore skepticism is inevitable. But real military capabilities will be assessed, intelligence will report on the situation in Europe regarding weapons, political sentiments, Dmitriev will report on sentiments in Trump’s camp, what Witkoff is saying. In other words, assessing the real potential, Putin will make a decision. And as for the pretext… If Putin decides it is beneficial for him, even if there is no pretext, he will simply pull it out of thin air,” Abbas Gallyamov warns.