Donald Trump’s insistence that Ukraine officially recognize Moscow’s annexation of Crimea as part of a peace agreement with Russia has unexpectedly forced European capitals to choose: remain on Kyiv’s side or support Washington.
Some European officials fear that disagreements over the unilateral draft deal proposed by the Trump administration could jeopardize bilateral relations with London, Berlin, and other capitals, undermine transatlantic security, and potentially derail the NATO summit scheduled for the end of June, according to Financial Times correspondents.
“Europeans have always been in a weak position to oppose the U.S. That’s why they have tried to avoid confrontation,” said Jeremy Shapiro, Director of the U.S. program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
European hopes of participating in the U.S.-led negotiations collapsed on April 23, when U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled a meeting in London with Ukrainian and European officials. Instead, Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is preparing for his fourth visit to the Kremlin.
The Trump administration presented Kyiv with a “take it or leave it” draft peace deal, the terms of which heavily favor Moscow. Notably, the U.S. would recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea—11 years after the peninsula’s illegal annexation—in defiance of international law.
Correspondents believe that Washington’s proposal to acknowledge Moscow’s control over Crimea, which contradicts NATO’s agreed-upon policy, is likely the biggest concession to Russia in recent months in the effort to rapidly secure a deal.
The Trump administration has also ruled out Ukraine’s accession to NATO—long a key objection of Russia to the Alliance’s promise of eventual membership for Kyiv. While Moscow is offered generous concessions, Kyiv faces pressure and threats, with little offered in return for surrendering its own territory.
“The worst-case scenario is if [the U.S.] fails to reach a deal between Ukraine and Russia and then shifts the blame entirely onto Ukraine. In that case, Europe will have to choose [between Ukraine and the U.S.],” said a senior EU diplomat.
Western officials told the Financial Times that European capitals will not support any U.S. moves to recognize Crimea as Russian or to pressure Kyiv into agreeing to such terms.
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